NDA Majority in Lok Sabha May Open Door for Delimitation Bill
The political landscape in India has changed in recent weeks, affecting the future of constitutional reforms crucial to India. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now appears to be closer to the 2/3rds of votes (the number required for constitutional amendments to be approved) necessary to pass constitutional amendments related to delimitation and womens’ reservations due to the defectors who have realigned and decreased the total number of votes in Parliament.
Earlier this year, the Lok Sabha did not pass a Constitution Amendment Bill on delimitation. The bill failed to pass by 54 votes due to strong opposition within the Lok Sabha.
In light of recent news updates, the NDA has increased its strength because of the tremendous instability created by violence and riots in West Bengal and Maharashtra, putting it in a better position to achieve its legislative agenda than it would have been without this unrest.
The loss of the TMC in West Bengal was one of the most significant events that caused this change in the amount of strength possessed by the NDA. There are reports that at least 20 of the TMC’s 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha have defected and aligned themselves with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India, an insignificant political party likely to align with the NDA.
By doing this, the ruling coalition’s power in Parliament dramatically increases their chances of the ruling coalition to make changes to the constitution going forward.
Maharashtra Uprising Picking Up Strength
The NDA could potentially gain more support from Maharashtra due to reports that 6 of 9 MPs from Shiv Sena (UBT) are considering joining Eknath Shinde’s faction.
If these MPs defect, it would also further widen the NDA’s support base and potentially require fewer votes to reach the necessary majority to pass constitutional amendments.
Delimitation and Women’s Quota Moving Back to the Forefront
Based on current estimates, in addition to Trinamool dissidents, the NDA could obtain 318 seats in Lok Sabha.
Combined with support from rebellious Shiv Sena MPs and possibly support from DMK, the NDA coalition may only need to capture 6 additional votes to secure effective majority needed to pass constitutional amendments.
Political analysts believe that current discussions with regional parties could help bridge the gap that exists today. This has led to speculation that the government may reintroduce the Women’s Reservation Bill and the Delimitation Bill at the upcoming Monsoon Session of Parliament.
What is on The Horizon ?
There is much speculation about what will happen next with regards to India’s upcoming elections and the future of India’s Constitution. As long-standing proposals are gaining traction once again, particularly in regards to redistricting and “One Nation-One Election”, there seems to be momentum for enhancing India’s democratic processes.
With the upcoming monsoon session where we will see whether or not these new political dynamics provide the numbers needed to change India’s electoral process, we should be prepared for the potential for dramatic changes and perhaps very different election cycles.
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